What are the potential tools for action?
Climate change will continue to pose challenges to current and future populations in terms of health-risk management and the reliability of infrastructure, such as health services and the supply of energy. Adaptation measures must be taken to reduce the current and future burden of disease due to climate change. At the same time, both high and low income countries will have to reduce net emissions of greenhouse gases. Currently, high-income countries emit around 4.3 tons of carbon per person, the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
[1], emit 2.2 tons per person, and the low-income countries emit 1.1 tons. The sustainable level of emissions per capita in 2100 is around 0.3 tons, so less than one-third of what low-income countries are emitting today. This target can only be achieved through sustainable mitigation measures and a ‘renewable transition’ - i.e. a whole-scale shift from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy and a shift to public transport and more walking and cycling in urban areas (IPCC 2007, EEA 2008) and, as far as possible, an overall reduction of person-km driven.
The tools to address mitigation can be grouped into technology measures, the promotion of change in user behaviour, modal balance policy and taxation measures. In terms of specific mitigation measures in the transport sector, the fourth assessment report of the IPCC reviewed a number of promising policies and measures, such as spatial and transport planning, taxation and pricing, regulatory and operational instruments (e.g. traffic management, control and information), fuel economy standards in road transport, transport demand management, non-climate policies influencing greenhouse gas emissions as well as co-benefits and ancillary benefits for human health (Kahn Ribeiro et al, 2007).
The cornerstone of the technology measures in the EU is a voluntary commitment by the automobile industry ,the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) agreement, to ensure that the CO2 emissions of new cars will be reduced by 25 per cent over ten years. The progress in reducing emissions has, however, almost come to a standstill: only half of the target reduction was achieved by the end of 2006 (EEAa 2008). Measures such as vehicle taxation are effective and needed to tempt users to buy smaller cars. Eco-driving campaigns in Germany and the Netherlands teach road users how to drive as efficiently as possible. Large-scale field trials are needed, though, to establish the energy savings of eco-driving (e.g. combining correct tyre pressure with moderate acceleration) (EEA, 2007).
EU policy to return the market share of rail transport to the level it had in 1998 (modal balance) has not been achieved for the rail freight sector (EEA, 2007). Reducing transport volumes is one way of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, but difficult to achieve. Better urban planning (compact cities), competitive urban transport as well as safe walking and cycling are ways to curb traffic growth in the long-term.
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KyotoProtocol
The main policy tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is an international agreement. Over a decade ago, most countries joined the international treaty ‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’ to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. A number of nations approved an addition to the treaty: the Kyoto Protocol, which has more powerful (and legally binding) measures (UNFCC, Kyoto, 1997). However, many countries in the WHO European Region are making no or little progress in reducing their emissions, and on a global level many developing countries are having difficulties skipping the fossil energy intensive phase in their development, which increasingly contributes to the warming of the atmosphere.
Most of the world’s countries eventually agreed to the Protocol, but some nations, including the United States and Australia, chose not to ratify it. Following ratification by the Russian Federation, the Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005. The Protocol requires developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions below the levels specified for each of them in the Treaty. These targets must be met within a five-year time frame between 2008 and 2012, and add up to a total cut in greenhouse gas emissions of at least five per cent against the baseline of 1990. The review and enforcement of these commitments is carried out by United Nations-based bodies (United Nations (1992).
The Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities.’ In order to give parties a certain degree of flexibility in meeting their emission reduction targets, the Protocol developed three innovative mechanisms known as Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). These so-called “market-based mechanisms” allow developed parties to earn and trade emissions credits through projects implemented either in other developed countries or in developing countries, which they can use towards meeting their commitments. These mechanisms help identify the lowest-cost opportunities for reducing emissions and attract private sector participation in emission reduction efforts. Developing nations benefit in terms of technology transfer and investment brought about through collaboration with industrialized nations under the CDM.
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Costs and benefits
An important and cheap measure to decrease greenhouse gas emissions from transport is the shift from motorized transport to active travel (walking, cycling). A simplified calculation was carried out by Mudu et al (in press) to demonstrate the potential carbon dioxide (CO2) savings (as a proxy for energy/carbon savings) from investments and interventions in active travel. Replacing car trips with human-powered mobility results in significant potential savings in CO2 emissions (see Table 2). The following rates of investment into active travel were used as basis for three scenarios.
a) Five per cent of car trips shorter than 8 km are replaced with walking/cycling (low impact scenario).
b) Twenty per cent of car trips shorter than 8 km are replaced with walking/cycling (medium impact scenario).
c) Fifty per cent of car trips shorter than 8km are replaced with walking/cycling (high impact scenario).
Cities of sizes ranging from 100,000 to 2 million inhabitants were taken as reference cities. The share of short trips (below 8 km) in and out of urban areas was taken from United Kingdom data. The displayed CO2 emissions savings include hot exhaust, cold start and fuel life-cycle emissions.
Table 2: CO2 emission savings by replacing car trips with walking or cycling
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CO2 emissions (exhaust + life-cycle, in tons p.a.)
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Cities
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Reference population
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Short trips (<8 km)
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Low impact (5%)
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Medium impact (20%)
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High impact (50%)
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Small
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100,000
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25,226
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1,261
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5,045
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12,613
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Medium
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500,000
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126,128
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6,306
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25,226
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63,064
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Large
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2,000,000
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504,512
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25,226
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100,902
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252,256
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‘EU-21’
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457,095,000
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115,304,951
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5,765,248
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23,060,990
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57,652,476
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· Average distance travelled by car per person = 6046 km (Eurostat and TREMOVE, DG ENV)
· Share of short (<8 km) trips = 16.6% of all car kilometres driven (based on UK National Transport Survey for 2004)
· ‘EU-21’ include: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungay, Ireland, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Slovenia, United Kingdom
The estimates in Table 2 clearly demonstrate the significant energy savings that can be achieved within and beyond the EU through concerted and well-planned investments in active travel. For example, the potential CO2 emissions savings based on a central 20 per cent success scenario for a medium-large city equals about 12,600 times the average amount emitted for driving a medium-sized car for one year (~2 t CO2 equivalents per annum), or the CO2 equivalent of running more than 250,000 refrigerators for one year (~0.1 t CO2 equivalents per annum), or more than 6,300 return flights from Europe to the Caribbean (~4 tCO2 equivalents per return flight) Mudu et al (in press).
Uncertainties
In addition to the uncertainties about the future development of human activities and climate change and its impacts in general, further challenges include:
· political, financial and human resource investment
· perception of climate change impacts and possibilities and limits to mitigate them
· climate change and adaptation to the impacts
· inequalities in and within countries
· potential large-scale impacts.
Relevant web sites
References
Campbell-Lendrum D, Pruss-Ustun A, Corvalan C (2003). How much disease could climate change cause? In: McMichael A et al., eds. Climate change and human health: risks and responses. Geneva: WHO/WMO/UNEP; p. 133-159.
Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R et al. (2007). Human Health. In: Parry ML et al., eds. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.: Cambridge University Press.
EEA - European Environment Agency (2004). Impacts of Europe's changing climate: An indicator-based assessment. Copenhagen: European Environment Agency.
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EEA (2007). Europe’s environment. The fourth assessment. Copenhagen, EEA.
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Kahn Ribeiro S, Kobayashi S, Beuthe M et al. (2007). Transport and its infrastructure. In: Metz B et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
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Darmstadt: Steinkopff.
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Mudu, P, et al (in press). Transport, energy and health. In: Bettina Menne, Anil Markandya, Michael Joffe (eds): Energy, Sustainable Development and Health. Health and Global Environmental Change Series No. 3, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen.
UNECE-WHO (2008). United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. Transport, Health and Environment: trends and developments in the UNECE-WHO European Region (1997-2007). Prepared under the auspices of the Transport, Health and Environment Pan-European Programme. Geneva, 2008.
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WHO Regional Office for Europe (2008). Protecting health in Europe from climate change. WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen.
Author
Tanja Wolf, Technical Officer Climate change and Health
WHO Regional Office for Europe
This document was prepared within the framework of the Transport, Health and Environment Pan-European Programme (THE PEP) for the Healthy Transport toolbox.
Publication date
July, 2009
[1] Also referred to as eastern Europe, the caucasus and central Asia (EECCA), including 12 countries.
